The Nasty Truth About Trading Popular IPO’s Such As Facebook

The Nasty Truth About Trading Popular IPO’s Such as Facebook

We’re getting a lot of questions about the IPO on Facebook that happened in the last week.

I put this presentation together to help you guys understand the truth about the IPOs and why trading it is so risky and I put the nasty truth here about Facebook’s IPO and it’s not just the nasty truth about Facebook’s IPO but any IPO that comes out especially if it has a lot of fanfare, there’s a lot of what we call a lot of celebration and just a lot of media exposure with the IPO.

The more exposure, the more hype and the more bells and whistles that you see on the financial news channels and everywhere, when the janitor at your company is talking about investing in Facebook, something’s wrong.

In this presentation, I want to cover some of the nasty truths behind it. I’m going to show you guys the facts, it’s not just opinions but these are the facts behind the IPO’s release.

For some you guys don’t know me, I’m type of trader coach extraordinaire. I feel like I’m a really good trader, if some of you guys have talked to me, work with me, maybe had any questions. You know I’m one of the best trader coaches out there on the market to help people because I’ve worked with so many people now that when I work with you guys, we get right to the point of what’s causing the problem in your training, you might not like to hear what I have to say. But I can guarantee you that’s what the cause is so that’s why I feel like I’m an awesome trader coach. Can we hit the lights on that just the front…Thanks.

I’m going to go over the nasty truth about Facebook’s IPO and why trading an IPO is extremely risky. Today’s discussion topics I’m going to cover “Why IPOs are dangerous”, “The nasty clues behind an IPO debut”, “How to handle an IPO”, “Why IPOs are a gamble”, “Why IPO should not be a part of your investment portfolio”, “Why IPOs are not good for short term trading” and a whole lot more and we’re going to have lots of fun while we do it. You know how trading is sometimes boring and sometimes tough so I’m going to try to make this as fun and as exciting as we can today.

Here are some of the things that we’re not going to cover today. I’m not going to cover the exact nature or the infrastructure behind the IPO itself. In other words, the underwriting that goes behind it, how Facebook or companies take themselves public; that’s now what I’m going to cover today because I believe that that’s not going to help you make money.

The things that I’m going to help you today, cover today, in today’s topics are things that can help you make money or prevent you from losing money. I’m more of a tactical type of trader so I like to help people just get right down to the nitty-gritty.

Here is a screenshot of Facebook’s IPO on Friday. It was last Friday the 18th. They decided to release their IPO here. Notice how it started way up here and crashed down to here, bounced back up and came back down again and then later on it came back up again.

To the untrained eye and to the public, everybody thinks that this is a great investment. If you ask anybody, the street bums, the guys that live under the bridges here in Dallas, they’ll tell you it’s a great IPO.

Everybody, how many of you guys had a friend, a relative or a co-worker suggest that you look into buying Facebook? Just raise your hands. How many of you guys considered in your own mind maybe looking into investing into or trading the Facebook? How many of you guys thought that it was best to just leave it alone?

What are some of the evidence that you guys have to leave it alone other than the fact it’s an IPO? Too much hype? There is no history of support and resistance. There’s no history of where people buy and sell this stuff.

I was being flooded by all my friends on Facebook, all of my friends that know that I trade called me up, emailed me or texted me to not forget about buying Facebook when it was released. These people never once contacted me, you know, when the Euro dropped a hundred points or the Dow dropped a hundred points or nothing like that but everybody decided to call me when Facebook came out.

They don’t understand the truth behind it. I took a screenshot on my account here and I’m going to show you some nasty truth about what happened that day when Facebook got released. Whether you decide to trade or decided not to trade that day, or decided to invest in it or not invest in it, these clues here will really peel your eyes back and reveal the truth to you about what happened.

Let’s look first at the overall big picture. I got a bunch of notes on the screenshot guys but just bear with me here and I’ll go through it one more time.

First of all, we’re looking at Facebook on the TradeStation platform. I don’t think it’s any different if you use any other direct access trading platform, you’ll probably see very similar data so any malfunctions or data issues on Tradestation, I do not believe that is just related to Tradestation only.

There were some glitches when the market opened for Facebook. I think it’s across the board and not just one particular broker. There was just so much volume. I mean there were over 500 million shares that were being traded that day. I mean the servers can only handle so much in such a short period of time.

Aside from the technical issues, that’s bound to happen so I mean there’s only so much you can blame on the broker. I mean let’s just look at the actual, the underlying of what goes on.

So looking at here the stock charts on Facebook. The interesting thing is they got 2 symbols, 2 characters instead of 4 like the standard Nasdaq symbols. I don’t know how they finagled that one in, but they were able to get it so it’s FB for Facebook.

We’re looking at a fifteen-minute chart here. It’s kind of hard to tell from the screen here because I forgot to darken it, but you see that dotted line running down here, that represents one day. Here’s another dotted line here that represents one day and here’s another dotted line here which represents the next day.

Here’s the first day of trading. If you look on the Friday that they opened up, the first day of their opening on the IPO, you will notice that Facebook, it shows on the chart that it went up to $45 and somewhere around there and then to $43. They said they opened at $42 but at some point, it went up to $45. The evaluation on it was at $38.

I just want to make it clear, guys. I was sitting there watching it and trying to trade at that time because I wanted to record it and show everyone the truth about trading an IPO when it first comes out.

Between the opening price around $42; between $42 and $45, guess how many shares were traded right there? I mean it’s not much of a guess, I put it right here.

The nasty clue we see here that nasty clue number one guys are that we see that less than a thousand shares were traded between the price of $42 and $45 out of 550 million plus shares that were traded on the first day of trading.

Think about that…

There was a huge three-dollar span. There was a three-dollar span between here and here and only less than a thousand shares were traded. How is that possible?

Student: So Mark Zuckerberg owns the rest of it?

No, let’s not focus on who owns what, let’s just focus on how the shares were traded. Who owns what is not going to put money in your pocket or prevent you from losing money. Let’s focus on how it was traded.

Between here and here somebody out there with a malfunctioning platform or some broker out there, something happened, there was a technical issue or technical glitch or somebody playing some down and dirty trading tactics and put those… actually, it was like a hundred and fifty shares that were traded at $45.

Student: You don’t need a glitch I mean if I wanted to buy the share for $50, I’m going to get filled at $50, right?

Yes, but if there’s nobody selling it at $50, you can’t buy it. Plus, you have to buy it within the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO).

Student: But the day of the opening, the underwriter will sell me at $50. Then if I wanted to buy that share at $1000, I’d get filled really quickly.

Tai: It sounds good in theory but when you go out there and try to buy it, this is the current price of the stock, It’s illegal for you to jump way out here and buy it way up here.

Student: Ah, okay. That’s illegal?

Tai: That’s illegal. Let’s put it this way; you don’t have the technology at home to do it. Whether it’s legal or illegal, you don’t have the technology at home. Because if the current price is right here, the bid is here and the ask is here, whatever the current bid and ask is, by law you have to buy it within the national… the NBBO which is the inside price, which is the wholesale price, which is the current price.

Student: But we know that there’s technology available that can let you buy a little bit of that.

Tai: Yes. Is there technology available to where you can jump ahead of everybody and buy up here or sell down here? The answer is yes. The answer is yes. Do not think…

Student: Why would you want to?

Tai: Because…I don’t want to get too far off track, but I’m going to answer that for you guys.

The reason why the current price is here and somebody would want to buy 5 or 10 cents above it is if somebody is buying 10,000 shares or 5000 shares, a large volume they don’t want to risk the slippage.

They would rather go ahead and pay 2 or 3 cents extra and get their entire order filled that one time or if you guys have a big, huge account like hundreds of millions of dollars, you can go out there and have your orders set above it and you can actually shake people out.

I don’t want to get too far advanced into that. The reason why is because I can talk about it but you don’t have the technology or the account size at home to do it. It’s irrelevant to us individual traders at home

If it opens up at $42 and you’re only buying or selling a hundred or two hundred, you’re an individual at-home trader, you’re going to buy around this level right here, you’re not going to have the ability or the technology or the money to jump way out here and buy it or sell it way up here. Are we very clear on that? Go home and try it, it’s not going to let you.

You can place a limit order up there so that when the price gets up there you can buy it or sell it but not just run out there and just buy it at the market at that current price or that limit price.

They used to be able to do that. They used to during the heydays of the 90s; you could do that and it’s called buying or selling out of the current price. There were ways to do that but now it’s really difficult.

Let’s get back to here. If there were only less than a thousand shares traded between these two price levels right here, what does that tell you? That’s not real.

Whenever you hear the news and somebody said that “Facebook just shot 10% or 15%” or “It’s up 20%” the truth is less than a thousand shares were traded there. You could not have gotten filled on a buy or sell order in that area.

Saying that the price went up 10% or 20% or whatever is completely irrelevant to you because you would not have had the ability to do it at home. Is everybody clear on that?

Not let’s take a look down here, the nasty clue number two. Nasty clue number two is that over 550 million shares were traded at $38 and $30.01 which clearly shows that the underwriters were trying to prop up price and keep it at $38 to make the IPO debut look rosy and pretty.

But if you know what you’re looking for. Let’s go back to here, this is the day that the IPO happened right here. Right here, It’s kind of blurry, guys, and you may not be able to be see it in the slide. But this right here in the yellow is $38 and the price right above it is $38.01.

You’re not going to be able to see from there but right here on my screen, it shows 234 million shares traded right there at $38 and 222 million shares were traded at $38.01. The math, just a rough estimate, that’s 456 million shares that were traded at those two price levels.

Notice how, at the rest of the price levels here, hardly anything was traded except the bulk of it was right there. Can you guys clearly see that? Even though they said that price, you know, of Facebook shot up all through here and everything, the reality of it was everything was traded right there at the bottom right there.

Because it would really hurt them. It would really hurt them if they let price fall below this below that $38 price level. It would really hurt underwriters and everybody. It would benefit them to keep it at that price and they made a ton of money by keeping it at that price.

Three days later in the newspaper, it said that Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter for this, they made over $100 million dollars that day. I’m not going to go into the details about how they went about doing that by keeping price there that they made a $100 million dollars. The reason is that none of us can do it. It’s irrelevant to talk about it.

Let’s talk about the nasty clue number three here. I tried to see what it was like to buy a very, very high demand, very popular IPO the day it opened. I logged in to my live account and I bought 10 shares right here on this red candle as it was falling. I actually bought it right somewhere there. I was looking to see, maybe it will take profits and pull up.

What happens is, I bought it right there at the top of that red candle and it bled all the way down here to $38 and it bounced back up.

Keep in mind I had a 15-cent stop loss on there when I submitted the order and it never got filled. It never got filled and I was down two dollars. Keep in mind I put in a 15-cent stop loss so I was willing to take a 15-cent loss on it but the platform never filled me because there was never shares for me to get filled. This is only 10 shares, folks.

It came all the way down to here, bounced off at $38 and then on this green candle, as the price was shooting up, the green candle represents that everybody is buying. At that point, that’s when I got filled for my 10 shares and I was down like $1.50 even though I had a 15-cent stop loss.

It sounds really good and dandy, but there were several hundred million shares traded. The truth is, you wouldn’t have gotten filled. The other truth is that on an IPO, I think that by law you’re not supposed to be able to short it within the 30 days to give the IPO, the company, a chance to survive.

During that time, I was not shorting it I was just trying to sell and get out of my long position but it would not fill. I ended up losing almost $1.50 per share. Luckily I was only doing it with 10 shares and not 100 or 1,000 shares or else I would have taken nasty bleeding on that.

That’s a valuable lesson for you guys there. Anytime you want to try something new, guess what? Do it with 10 shares because when everything goes wrong, guess what you can still afford, you know you don’t like to, take $1.50 the loss.

But hey, you know. At least I did it and I can sit here and tell you guys that it was nasty. I couldn’t get filled, I ended up having to call the brokers the Trade Desk and tell them to close out my position for me.

I tried every which way I could think of to close out the position and it just wouldn’t close. When I finally called up my Tradestation broker, the Trade Desk, the agent, the customer service rep, he told me, “Just wait a minute.”

I was like, “Wait for what?” It’s only 10 shares. There are millions of shares being traded, how come I didn’t get filled? He was like, “We don’t have no shares to fill it.”

Student: There were no buyers?

Tai: Yeah, there were no people. I was trying to buy it to get out and there was nobody selling it. Then it’s turned green in the middle of the conversation, I was pissed off.

I was like, “What do you mean you can’t fill 10 shares?”

He was like, “Go ahead and try to get out now” because the candle was green.

I hit close and it exited out my trade for me. He confirmed for me that I was out. There were a lot of people that put in buy and sell orders that day. That did not get filled and guess what? Two days later they get a statement from the broker an email statement from the broker saying that their orders got filled.

They went home thinking that the people went home thinking that their orders never got filled. There are a bunch of losses going on about this. The brokers didn’t fill people’s orders. That’s another thing. I was lucky I got mine filled even though it had $1.50 loss.

Anybody have any question about that. There was not enough volume. Now let’s take a look at nasty clue number four.

If you bought Facebook at the open at $42 right here, look at this long red arrow right here. If you bought it at the opener at $42 on the day that it was released, you lost 26% in 3 days, 26% from $42, down to here.

I’m not going to say anything above that because your orders would not have gotten filled up here so I’m just going to use where your orders might have gotten filled. How many guys would have liked a -26% loss in 3 days?

If you were shorting that would be beautiful, wouldn’t it? But you couldn’t short. If you would have bought Facebook at valuation price, at the $38 valuation price at this thick blue line, then you would have only lost 18% in 3 days.

How do you like that? Only if I could have shorted that day, but I couldn’t.

Now, any questions on nasty clue number three here folks. No question. It’s pretty much self-explanatory, right? The charts don’t lie, guys. Anybody can say whatever they want on the news, on Bloomberg, on CNBC, on the Squawk Box.

The Mad Man can rant and rave but the charts don’t lie because the charts is a footprint. They’re the footprint of what was actually bought and sold.

I wanted to throw in a bonus nasty clue for you guys down here. This is bonus material. Check out the obvious amateur entry points. The amateur entry points here is what I put. Bonus nasty clue here reveals this is how the trader psychology, you should look into this.

Notice on the matrix here, on this price ladder here, on Tradestation they call it the matrix but the technical term for it is the price ladder because the price goes vertically up and down.

Notice that price was traded at $32 at the time that I took the screenshot. It was the fourth trading day here for Facebook. Notice how at $32, there were 36 million shares traded and only 45 million shares have been traded today and out of that, 36 million occurred at the $32 price level. What does that tell you? Just spell the answers out, guys. Just scream it out.

Student: An amateur hour?

Tai: An amateur hour? What else?

Student: People like Facebook?

Tai: Okay. What else?

This lets you know that the average person when they’re buying Facebook or any kind of stock, they don’t put orders in at $32.05 or $31.97. They put it in whole even round numbers. If you guys are putting your orders or your stop losses at whole even round numbers, then guess what?

There’s a higher probability that you might get shaken out and beat yourself upside the head and stomp the floor, punch the wall, beat your forehead against the sheetrock wall in your house. Hopefully sheetrock wall and not brick you know. You’re bleeding profusely in the forehead and you wonder why you keep getting shaken out.

Here’s a classic example of why guys. Look at these 2 arrows. I put a question here. Is the “2 cents” breakout really an accident? Look at this. Notice how on the second day of trading Facebook fell all the way down to a low of $32.98, 2 cents below $33.

And the next day, it gapped down some more and fell 2 cents below $31 and hit $30.98, 2 cents below the whole number. Do you think that that is an accident?

Do you think that’s an accident or do you think that the institution the big boys know that the average person, the average amateur Joe Lunch Bucket is going to buy at those whole even round numbers?

“Since you know, uh, Facebook fell, I couldn’t get it at $38. I think it’s a great deal at $32 or $33. I’ll put my buy order right there or maybe put my stop losses right underneath it.”

We know that they do this. So pay attention to the stock that you trade. I’m not saying that this happens to every stock or every currency or every future contract. But pay attention to how low it pokes below, how low peeks through and make sure that you set your stop accordingly.

If you trade Facebook like 5 or 6 months from now and you’re trading Facebook constantly and you notice that they always poke below 2 cents or 3 cents below the whole even numbers, you might want to set your stop like a few ticks away from that so you won’t get shaken out.

That’s on the stop loss. What about on the profit side?

On the profit side, let’s say that you had a plan to take profits at $31.90 or $31.95. We know that $32 is the prime target for institutions to shake people out. We might want to get filled for our profit right there because we know there’s high probability it’s going to get filled.

It works on both sides, just make sure you use it correctly. That’s my bonus nasty clue. Does anybody have any questions about that? About what we went over and why it’s not safe to trade an IPO?

Student: When would you do this? Would you do this a year from now so that you have a whole year?

Tai: That’s a good question. That seg-ways us into our next slide – how to properly trade an IPO. I’m going to answer that for you.

First, let the dust settle. When I say the dust settles, what does that mean?

That means that let all the fanfare, let all the hype, let all the commotion, let the janitor finish spouting investments facts about Facebook while he’s cleaning the toilet at your company then you can start considering to trade.

The next thing is don’t be lead to the slaughterhouse, folks. Just don’t. Because you will get slaughtered, I mean I know what I’m doing and I got hit with a $1.50 loss on 10 shares.

Imagine you came in there with 1,000 or 2,000 shares and thought that this might be a good investment grade material. You’re only going to get a butt whipping, and just to know just to answer you guys, also, trading is about consistency, it’s not about a gamble.

If you come and you tell me that, “Tai, I’ve been making $100 a day every other day for the last 60 weeks.” I would look at you and pat you on the back and know that you are an awesome, awesome trader.

However, if you come and you tell me you made $10,000 on a trade, the first thing I’m going to ask you is, “What size account and how often have you done that?” If that’s only happened once in your lifetime, we’re in trouble.

Remember guys, trading is about consistency.

When you talk about trading for a living, if you need $3,000 a month to cover your bills and your expenses so you don’t have to show up for work from 9 to 5 every day or you need to cover a $5,000 expense each month or a $10,000 expense each month, you’re trading to cover that.

No one has ever come to me and said, “I want to trade and become a millionaire.”

However, when they go home and trade, the only thing they can think of becomes a millionaire from their trading. It’s not that, folks. It’s trading to generate that consistent income that will give you the option to leave your job if you want to.

Some of you guys have great jobs and you might not want to leave your jobs.

I feel like I got a great job; I get to make money in the market and help other people do the same thing. I mean I was doing it for free for two years before I was recruited to become a trader coach. I mean I like doing it.

You know it’s not always a bad thing.

What if the IPO shoots to the moon?

I get that question all the time from students is that what happens if it shoots to the moon, Tai? Great. When it does, let me know and for less than ten bucks I’ll jump on it. How much commission? How much are you guys paying for commissions? Five dollars? Seven dollars?

I know it’s less than 10 dollars. I don’t think any of you guys pay more than 10 bucks for the commission. If it goes to the moon, great. Let me know and when that happens, for less than ten dollars I’ll jump on the trade. Do you guys agree?

I’m not going to stop what I’m doing and make my couple hundred dollars every day in the market to go over there and gamble for a thousand or two thousand dollars. I mean really think about this, guys.

On your account size, some of you guys trade with a $5,000 account; some of you guys trade with a $10,000, $30,000, $50,000, $100,000 account. I don’t think any of you guys. I might be stereotyping. You know stereotyping is always fun because most of the times it’s wrong. I doubt some of you guys are trading at 5 or 10 million dollar accounts in here.

If you’re trading in the small, 5, 10, 20, 100-thousand-dollar account, is it really worth it for you to stop what you’re doing and jump over here to Facebook and try to make a thousand or two thousand bucks? I mean really how much do you really think you’re going to make?

I’m not. I’m going to stick with my game plan and that’s the next bullet point here, is stick to your trading plan.

Don’t be dazzled by the bells and whistles, new shiny objects, the chrome plating on the bumpers. Don’t get fascinated with that because that doesn’t pay your bills each month.

Would you rather take a trade and risk, would you guys want to learn how to make $10,000 on one trade and only do it once a year or would you guys rather learn how to be consistent and make that $100 a day to $200 a day so you can pay your bills each month?

Raise your hand if you want the consistency, guys. Look at that, everybody raising hands. Wait a minute – I know you didn’t. I know you just didn’t sit then go ‘I’d rather go for $10,000 a chunk.’

Tell me you didn’t, you just didn’t hear what I said or something. You’re just passive? Raise your hand anyway. You see that, guys? Everybody in the room just raised their hands and said they would prefer consistency over a huge gamble.

Thanks for your cooperation there.

She’s like “Oh man I want that $10,000. I can use that new COACH purse, a COACH bag or whatever

Student: I’d be better investing in COACH, I still own the ones I bought for $32.

Tai: Okay, folks. Any final questions on the IPO? Any questions? Yes. When can you short it? After 30 days.

What I would do here folks is this, I would wait until there was a steady, you know supply and demand level. And the folks, this is a $40 stock. Do you think that this is the only $40 stock out there that you can trade? There’s a bunch more out here.

Why would you go and trade the most dangerous stocks and have no clue of where it’s going or what’s happening with it? There’s no historical evidence. There’s no footprint of where prices are going to turn.

Student: It’s fresh and shiny.

Tai: Yeah. This is the popular kid in high school and everybody wants to be his friend. Who cares. That’s not going to pay your bills. If you’re lucky, you might make some money. But if you’re unlucky like me and you took $1.50 hit on it, that can be a disaster for your account.

Lucky that ten-share trade wasn’t a huge hit to my account. But some of you guys, if you lay everything on the line, that could be your whole savings right there. You guys any other questions guys any other questions, any final questions, comments?

Student: I’m just surprised to see something that had a lot of hype there and so many people got hurt.

Tai: Yeah. You’re surprised that it happens over and over, right?

When I was working downtown at the clubs though, when I was day trading in 2008, I was working at the clubs as a promoter and bouncer at night in downtown Austin, in the club district and it’s packed. It’s packed like sardines Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays.

If you’re a single individual, Austin has got to be the best place for single people and they’ve been voted best place for single people many years in a row.

They would literally have busloads. I’m talking about busloads of people that go to University of Texas – UT, Longhorns and they would ferry students from their college dorms and they would drive them down to the downtown club district and just release it.

They would open the floodgates and there were just kids. Fraternities, sororities, kids, I mean colleges flooding the street and it was like shoulder to shoulder there every weekend.

If you’re single and you’re listening to this you know, just go there. If you single you want to meet other singles, that’s one of the best places to meet. I know this is not trading, you guys are laughing.

But I brought this up because there will always be some douchebag down there, literally, that would fire off a gun and guess what happens when they fire off a gun in the middle of thousands of people?

Guess what the first thing that everybody does it? They run back and dodge and they trample whoever is in front of them. Think about this, guys.

We’re civilized beings and the majority of kids go to a prestigious university. The University of Texas, Longhorns at Austin, one of the most prestigious universities in the country. You know these guys are smart. They’re not dumb or else they wouldn’t be in the school, right?

But guess what happens every time when somebody fires off a gun down there. They scatter, they trample and they just run over each other and there’s always somebody that’s hurt. That’s why they have two police stations down there; did you guys know that?

They set up two police stations two blocks apart literally and park six police cars. They got the bus there to round people up when necessary. What is it called?

Student: Paddy wagon.

Tai: Yeah, the paddy wagon. I was thinking chuck wagon. It’s the paddy wagon. They would literally just round people up whenever something like this happens.

The reason why I brought this story about why people get trampled over and ran over is back to what you said. It’s amazing how every time the media spits all these nonsenses in the media, everybody runs out there and buys it because it’s human nature. It’s human nature.

If I throw my hand in your face and flick my finger on your face, you will flinch and they know that. They know that the institutions, the big boys know that they make a move, the public will flinch and move in a certain direction. That’s how it works, folks.

 

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