Tai Zen: What’s up guys. This is Tai Zen. I’m here today with LeonFu.com, the great oracle of cryptocurrency.
In this video, we’re going to talk about the profit potential in privacy coins. In this episode or module number 4, we’re going to talk about the TaiFu analysis of privacy coins.
Before we get started, I want to go over this a quick disclaimer. This video has been sponsored by a privacy coin project to provide an independent third party review of the major privacy coin projects currently active to educate the public about the importance of financial privacy, especially with the recent Wikileaks.
We’re going to start off with price analysis of a Dash. There’s no particular order.
Leon Fu: No. There’s no particular order. We just go through major projects.
Tai Zen: LeonFu will talk about the fundamental analysis, which is the business aspects, of the cryptocurrency. I’ll go over the technical analysis.
Leon Fu: I’d like to point out that in the previous videos, we’ve tried to keep our opinions out of it and just stick mostly with the facts in this video. In this module, we will try to now focus on our opinions and our analysis.
Tai Zen: I also wanted to tell you that no matter what opinions we have about it, everything can completely change if market conditions change or regulations changed like just a day or two ago.
Leon Fu: SEC shut downed the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF. The price crashed to $150, but it’s recovering nicely today.
Let’s go over Dash again. It’s one of the earliest privacy coin projects. We went over its history in the previous video. At that time, the simplest and most obvious way to try to preserve your financial privacy was to mix your coins.
Dash was unusual because it tried to build mixing in the coin itself rather than having to rely on a third party service. They did that with the Masternodes. The way it does privacy is technically the simplest of the 2 other major privacy projects.
It is a Bitcoin fork. It was built on top of the existing Bitcoin source code. Because of that and its popularity, it has widespread support with the existing Bitcoin infrastructure that includes things such as software wallets, popular hardware wallets such as Trezor and Ledger.
Tai Zen: if they’re not, they will be.
Leon Fu: In 2015, Dash did a rebrand. They were previously known as Dark coins. That rebrand changed the focus of the project. It was no longer just focused on pure privacy and technology. They wanted to focus on user adoption, governance and building their community.
They felt that the drama that was happening in the Bitcoin community left an opening for them to come in and try to do what Bitcoin has actually failed to do up to this point.
Tai Zen: Can you explain governance because that seems to be like a huge problem in the cryptocurrency world, not just in the privacy coin bucket alone, but in general.
Leon Fu: Decentralization has been a major theme that no one’s in control. The decentralized network controls the community, but when a decision needs to be made, who is going to make that decision? How is that decision going to be made?
That’s governance just like in political governance. You have the congress, the president and the courts.
Now, Bitcoin and other projects begin with an autocratic leader that starts to project somebody like Satoshi Nakamoto when one individual is basically dictating down. Ethereum, many would argue is that Vitalik Buterin basically can just dictate decisions from the top down.
That’s fine when the project is small, but as the project grows and there are more interests involve, that doesn’t work so well because now you start alienating people in your community who are not happy.
Tai Zen: Governance is the ability to make a final decision to accommodate all the people that are using it.
Leon Fu: It gets harder and harder to govern a project as it grows because now you have more interest groups. You can start off as a benevolent dictator, but that quickly breaks down as the community grows.
What Dash is focusing on is they’re trying to get more people now. There’s a very active marketing campaign. They have a very thought out strategy.
In my opinion, it is better than anything else out there. I won’t say it’s great, but it’s way better than any of the other marketing strategies I’ve seen for other projects
Tai Zen: Dash has surpassed Monero in early 2017
Leon Fu: As we said, Monero was the best performer in 2016. In 2017, with the run-up to $70, Dash completely took the lead.
Leon Fu: Again, people will say different reasons, but I watched the talk Dash gave at Miami and I was sold. It sold me after I heard that talk. I said I got to go out and buy some more Dash.
Tai Zen: I want to explain to the audience what you were sold on.
You were sold on the fact that they have better governance and they were not trying to be perfect as far as the technology goes. They want to get it, so it’s working well enough.
The key is to get user adoption because although you have the best technology in the world, it’s never going to grow if no one wants to use it.
Leon Fu: I’ll go into more about why I was sold when I was in Miami.
This has to do with the government. A lot of Bitcoin’s problems right now is with its governance.
Therefore, Dash put a lot of emphases to try to avert those problems that Bitcoin is going under such as the poor user experience, the governance that I had mentioned and building the community of users.
I believe it’s now $500 million within a few days. It’s a straight line up.
Tai Zen: Talking about the downsides because you’ve talked about some of the things that got you interested.
Leon Fu: Once again, this is my view. Unlike Monero and Zcash, I think Dash is probably the simplest privacy project since it was one of the first projects with mixing technology.
I don’t believe it’s as sophisticated as Monero and definitely not Zcash, which no one understands quite yet.
So it’s definitely not the latest technology. Plus, Dash is not being used for anything that we know of.
You can only exchange Bitcoin for it as far as I know.
Tai Zen: You can’t buy a real world product.
Leon Fu: That doesn’t mean that it won’t in the future, but as of now, I don’t know what you can buy with Dash.
With Monero, you can go on some websites and get some drugs, but it’s purely speculative at this point here.
Next is user adoption will eventually have to come in. There’s going to have people who actually use it for something.
Tai Zen: I want to make a point to that. There are people like us who will accept Dash for our consulting services, but there’s not an actual physical product that you can actually buy.
Leon Fu: There is a community of people that will accept it, but there’s no widespread merchants or anyone.
If actual people start to use this and it appears that’s a very likely possibility because I believe they have a very strong roadmap, it could easily be the next cryptocurrency to surpass $1 billion in market cap. It’s already at $500,000,000
Tai Zen: That is not unreasonable because it’s $70 right now. They can easily go up to $140.
Leon Fu: But the question I had is whether it can sustain it.
Tai Zen: Yeah. Because when Bitcoin was at $170, you can actually buy stuff with it on Silk Road.
Tai Zen: All right. Now, it’s my turn. I’m going to do the potential technical price targets of Dash.
I want you to understand something as we do this technical price targets and analysis of Dash price charts.
This is not like doing the price analysis or targets for stocks, futures, commodities and the traditional Forex market. The reason is everything that we’re doing here is priced against Bitcoin.
It would be easier if we had priced against USD, but usually, when I do my analysis, I price it against Bitcoin because the charts are more readily available.
If there are charts available for Dash against USD, that would be the more accurate analysis.
If you notice here, you have over 2 years to accumulate these Dash tokens.
I do a trendline here near the bottom. I’m using the majority contact method to draw these trend lines. I did a parallel across the top and across the bottom. After I drew the uptrend line, I drew a parallel to it to create a parallel channel here.
When we actually started preparing these slides for this video series, the price was right here. By the time we got ready to film it, it was already up to here.
We had reupdated the slides and that’s why it took longer to make these series of sponsored videos on privacy coins.
In technical analysis, we would traditionally call it the arithmetic price charts because it’s on a linear scale like normal price charts that everybody sees.
Usually, when you trade or invest in something that moves exponentially like this, these arithmetic price charts are not suitable for very big price moves.
If you trade something or invest in something that can move up to 50% in a year, it will work. However, if you invest in something that moves 100% in a few hours, a day, a week or a month, arithmetic charts are not really that ideal.
We’re going to use what’s called a logarithmic price chart. They are more suitable for big price moves. Now, this is the exact same price.
What I’m doing here is I’m drawing the trend lines. If you look at the solid trendlines I’m drawing, you can see that there’s an upward channel.
If we go back as far as this and look at the dotted lines, there are 2 types of trends going on right now and depending upon where you draw the trend lines at.
I drew both of them in case any of our viewers use either method to draw the trend lines.
The reason why I use a solid one here is this is where it has the most contact to where the low of the price went.
Some of you that might be more traditional when you go back to the low of this from March of 2014.
First of all, we’re going to draw a trend channel just like that. Then, we’re going to look at the angle in which the price moves up.
From this low to this low here, you’ll notice that it moves at like a 45 degree. Here is the same. When it goes up, it moves at that angle right there.
What I did was I transferred that historical angle and put it right here where the dotted line is at.
What I did next was I looked at the angle in which the price shoots up on the top side and I projected it out to here in the green line. As a result, we will have an area in the yellow here where I anticipate that the price will move in.
As we can see, the price is moving up and it’s hitting up to the top angle of how price normally moves up.
I expect that when it comes up to here, there’ll probably be a pullback before it goes up. Or there might even be a pullback right here before it continues going up.
Based on the way of the two dotted trend lines goes, I expect the price to reach that area and it will hit somewhere here in the yellow zone. That’s what my technical price target for Dash.
If you look at it, my short term price target is at $10 million in 2017, 2018. The long term price target for it is around $50 million. That would be sometime after 2019.
We will reach up there in that area because I expect the pullback several times before it reaches up to that price now.
You can see that I have my yellow highlighted area here above the trend line. In the past, it only hit here. The reason I did that was whenever price comes up to here, I take the distance that it pokes through, where the red arrows are at, and applies it here. That the way I anticipate how far it’ll breakthrough to get it.
These are my price targets for now and it is based on the logarithmic price charts of Dash.
Keep in mind that if Bitcoin all of a sudden shoots up to $10,000 out of nowhere, it’s going to negate a lot of this analysis.
However, based on the current velocity and speed in which Bitcoin is moving up, this is my current technical price target for Dash for now. Do you need to add to that?
Leon Fu: No. I believe that’s just so widely traded. You could get a graph in USD now, I believe. Yeah,
Tai Zen: Okay. Let’s switch gears and do a price analysis of Monero.
Leon Fu: It began the first year of bouncing around $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 of market value. As the community saw there was a real tech team that was working on the software, it reached $5,000,000. Therefore, by the second year, you would have doubled your money.
That’s pretty good. I don’t think anyone will complain about doubling your money in a year. As you can see, you can make money just on technology.
However, the big money came in 2016. We saw the chart where it just exploded to $200 million, which is $15 from $1.
We see these explosions when there’s adoption. It doesn’t really matter where the adoption is coming from as long as more people are using it.
Leon Fu: At that time, they had a massive amount of new demand. These dark markets accepting it as payments to buy on their marketplace.
I would argue that it is the best technology we have. If you have some technical background, I think you can understand how your privacy is being maintained by Monero. The cryptography is also very well understood.
Those are advantages that we are definitely more sure than Zcash whether or not it works. In addition, there’s now real-world commerce. There’s a strong community behind it. There are a lot of active forums. It’s got a very good trading volume. It’s got very good liquidity. It’s available across a lot of different exchanges such as Poloniex and many of the leading exchanges.
Tai Zen: What are s the downsides?
Leon Fu: As we’ve mentioned, even though people are using it to buy drugs on these dark markets, there’s no plan. I haven’t heard a plan to grow beyond that.
The second problem is as we’re making this video, there’s no user-friendly software behind MyMonero which is run by Fluffy Pony – the lead developer for actually a holding your Monero
Your only choice really as of today is MyMonero or just keeping your Monero on the exchange, which we all know that’s not a good idea because these exchanges get hacked.
Otherwise, you can download a full node, but that’s not easy to do. It’s not a fork of Bitcoin. It was built from an entirely different new codebase.
In our opinion, those are probably the best wallets on the market right now for your phone or your desktop.
Because it’s so popular, they’ve really worked hard to try to integrate it and they haven’t been able to do it as of now. That will limit the downside.
Remember if people can’t hold it, that’s going to limit user adoption in the near term. It’s going to be used mainly by people who are speculators, investors, and drug dealers.
I think it has just as much potential as Dash, but the problem is the community doesn’t seem to be moving towards that direction.
Here’s the biggest downside. When Fluffy Pony was the first speaker at Miami, the first thing he said if you were going to ask me whether or not you should buy Monero, didn’t buy it. You have the lead developer actively telling people not to buy it.
Tai Zen: That to me is the biggest downside. If you want your cryptocurrency to grow, you need to tell people to get into it.
Now we’re going to take a look at the potential technical price target of Monero.
We’re going to use an arithmetic price chart. In this particular case, I drew a downtrend this way at the bottom where the lows are at. Then, I put a trend line up here.
Coincidentally, that high also coincides with the lows of when the price of Monero just got started trading.
The reason I’m using arithmetic chart is even though there was an exponential move in price, the price formations are still in a shape that we can actually analyze and take a price projection out of it.
I put a trend line at every time they ran up in price. I looked at the angle in which it moved up at price. This one is about 45 degrees. This one’s about 20 degrees. This one’s about 30 degrees.
I took the lowest one, which had the flattest angle. Then, I replicated that over here and put a trend line right there.
Next, I looked at the top side of what the angles of which the price moves on each one of these. The one that had the steepest price move was this last price move up here. Hence, I replicated that and drew a dotted trend line.
Basically, what we’re showing here is the lower boundaries of the trend and the upper boundaries of the trend.
If we get rid of all the other reference trend lines, we have this area here. This is where the price is going with the current price is right here.
Based on the current price of Bitcoin around $1,200, there’s a potential for 3,000,000 Satoshi price target in the short term from where it’s currently at to come up there. I see that between spring of 2017 and the mid of 2019.
In the longterm, I see a 4,000,000 Satoshi price projection where it hits the upper bounds of this trend line right here. I don’t see that happening until after 2019.
Once again, if you ask why I’m putting this yellow bubble over the top of the trend line, the distance that I put up there is also the same distance that price moved up to here, there and back here. I’m accounting for the extra push through that trend line in case it does happen so that you can expect that.
Now, let’s look at the potential technical price target of Monero based on a logarithmic chart and see the differences.
We do the same trend line again. The solid green lines are the trend lines of the price going up that way. What we’re doing here is we’re drawing out a smaller referenced trend lines in the short term when the price shot up right here, and then it shot up right here.
This angle is about 45 degree. This one’s about maybe 40 degrees. This one here is about 70 degree and so as this one.
Then, I took the lowest one, which was this one right here, to replicate a dotted trend line at that same angle and put it right there as the lower bounds of where I anticipate the price will move.
We did the same thing on the top side right there on the upper ones. What I do is I replicated this one, which was the steepest, and drew a dotted trend line right there to show the upper bounds of where the price would run.
If we clear out all the reference trendlines and just use the 2 dominant ones, that’s where I projected the price will go.
Now I have a bigger yellow bubble here simply because the price is in the middle of this trend channel.
There’s an old saying that you don’t mess around with the trade while it’s in the middle of the trend because it can go down this way to the bottom of the trend or come up to the top.
Be careful if you get into right now. Make sure that you have closer stops.
As we’re coming in through here, in the short term price target, I’m looking at 3,000,000 Satoshi also in 2017 to mid-2019, which is same as the arithmetic charts.
If you look at the long term price target, it is going to be about in the 4,000,000 Satoshi in mid-2019.
As you can see here, when the price shot up, it went sideways first before it went up. Therefore, I’m expecting this to go sideways until it hits this dotted trend line or the solid one down here before it starts to go up. That’s why I had the time out that further.
Now anything can happen. People watching this video may decide to jump into it. It will shoot the price all the way up and throw all my analysis off. Another case is the price of Bitcoin can shoot up to $10,000 per Bitcoin, so either way, it can happen.
However, based on the current price of a Bitcoin being at $1,200, this is my current projections so far.
Now let’s jump to the price analysis of Zcash. You are going to start with the fundamental analysis of Zcash.
Leon Fu: Zcash is really new. It is just a few months old. It was worked on for 2 years. It’s a fork of Bitcoin like Dash.
Unlike Monero, Zcash had all the support right at the beginning. That’s not usual for one of these cryptocurrencies. Usually, they just languish for a while until enough of the community support comes before they’re added to exchanges and wallets.
Because of strong institutional support from MIT, John Hopkins, other big-name universities and a lot of big-name investors behind it, it came out with all of these that usually takes other projects a year or two before they can get the same kind of support.
However, these wallets don’t use any of Zcash’s privacy features. They send them just like they send Bitcoins, but it does fit into the existing Bitcoin infrastructure such as hardware wallets and exchanges.
Tai Zen: I think the reason why when Zcash came out and it was readily available right away on the exchanges to be traded and everybody adopted right away is they already had two years of development behind it.
Instead of coming out like Lisk, Waves and some of these other ones where they’re made available for trading and available to the public, and there’s nothing behind it, they just decided to withhold everything until it’s done and release it to the public.
I think that’s where the difference is.
Leon Fu: This is by far the most sophisticated technology in the privacy space. We don’t really know how it works. Not too many people do and I don’t know how it works exactly.
What’s appealing to this, from an investor point of view, is just very strong institutional support from academia, investors and the community. They’ve built a very strong relationship with other projects such as Ethereum.
Tai Zen: When we say that it has very strong institutional support, I mean venture capitalist firms out there heavily invested in this. They don’t think it’s a scam from the very beginning. There are no cryptocurrency investors that thought it was a scam. They’re extremely well known in the world of cryptography and the world of credentials
Leon Fu: It has a market cap in the tens of millions. I think it’s around $30 or so million because of that strong institutional support.
Unlike Monero, in the first couple of years, it was only around $1 or $2 million. Even in the second year, it was still only around $5 million.
Zcash came right out of the gate at tens of millions immediately because it’s the community. Remember the community is what determines the value.
It’s not really being used for anything.
Tai Zen: you can’t buy anything.
Leon Fu: you can’t buy anything rather than trade it for Bitcoins. It could go into the hundreds of millions from here. It’s very likely if it gets any kind of adoption for any reason.
Tai Zen: Talk about some of the drawbacks.
Leon Fu: It’s complex to the point that not many people understand how it works now.
I don’t believe that will always be like that. As technology becomes better understood, more people will understand it and are able to explain it. Right now, it’s a bit of a black box because it was designed to obfuscate everything about the transaction.
If there’s a bug or some other errors in the code itself, counterfeit Zcash could be created and no one would know until it was so obvious.
Tai Zen: If the hacker was smart, they would have slowly released counterfeit coin into the network.
Leon Fu: Zcoin actually did have a bug. It was a bug that was only 1 line. It was an equal instead of an equal, which means 2 different things in C programming. That allowed the hacker who discovered the bug to generate counterfeit coins.
However, they didn’t hide the amounts because of the public ledger for the amounts was open, so the community sees that there are more coins than it should be and they fixed it.
Tai Zen: In this particular case, because it’s a black box system, people are not going to be able to detect that.
Leon Fu: Their future plans seems to be still highly focused on technology. They’ve been working on 2 years.
Like Monero, there’s not really a marketing plan and business development plan. It’s still focused on the technology and perhaps integrating with other cryptocurrency projects such as Ethereum.
I do know that Zcash has a very close relationship with Ethereum. The head of Zcash also spoke at the big Ethereum development conference in China.
It’s highly speculative because of all these unknowns. It’s very risky.
When we say risky, it’s not just from an investment point of view. It’s even from a technology point of view.
Tai Zen: If somebody releases millions of counterfeit coins into the network, nobody knows about those problems.
Leon Fu: My view is that this technology has to be better understood, not just understood by academics, but understood by at least other people in the community if not the general public.
It has to be tested much more thoroughly before any kind of adoption for anything. Even if we want to use it on the dark markets to buy drugs, they’re not going to use this anytime soon.
Tai Zen: Let’s go ahead and take a look at the potential technical price targets of Zcash here.
Now, I want to show you what the arithmetic price charts look like for Zcash. As you can see on the day that was released on October 2016, it just dropped and tanked.
You can see in this chart that everything is sideways right here. This is the reason why we don’t use arithmetic price charts for very big moves in price on any currency.
Let’s go to a logarithmic price chart because it’s more suitable for big moves like this.
If you guys notice here, this is actually the first cryptocurrency ever to be released where the value of it was worth more than a Bitcoin. That doesn’t mean that someone actually paid it, but it was worth more than that.
When we look at this, we see that the price had dropped so dramatically. I’ll show you guys what the price chart looks like, then Leon will explain to you why that happened.
If you look at the top grid line here, it shows that it’s 5 Bitcoins. When I go to the next price chart here, it tanked from 10 Bitcoins down. What we all just saw previously looked like it was a big dropdown, but it is only that right there. I want you to pay attention to where the 50 Bitcoins is at.
Now, we go to the next slide. The 50 Bitcoins is there. Everything just seems like there’s a flat line. Look at where the 250 Bitcoins is out there. When I jumped to this slide, the 250 Bitcoins is down here and. This seems like it keeps going on and on, but it goes and it does. At the highest, it was 3,299 Bitcoins for 1 Zcash token, which is completely ridiculous. It’s absurd. No one would ever pay for that.
FYI, Every cryptocurrency can be split up into 100,000,000 units. Each one of those units is called as Satoshi, which is named after the original inventor of Bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto.
As you can see, it’s only a fraction of Zcáh, but they still registered on the price charts.
Do you want to talk about slow mining and then the things that cause this?
Leon Fu: I believe there are 2 reasons. One is they started trading it right away, which is uncommon. The reason for that is because there was an extremely limited supply of Zcash coins for I say the first month or two.
They call this the slow start because what they wanted to avoid was a single miner jumping the gun and monopolizing all the hashing the mining, and then collecting all of the Zcash. That’s why we have a limited amount of Zcash with this ridiculous price.
The idea was to give the mining community time to set up, so they could get their rigs up and all the coins wouldn’t just flow to a single or few miners.
After this slow period, it would ramp up to its normal 50 Zcashes every 10 minutes. The issuance rate is identical to Bitcoin. It’s still going to end up at $21 million. They decided to just keep that.
As more supply comes on board, you will see the price drop.
Tai Zen: It starts to stabilize
Leon Fu: It’s fairly stable now in the $30 to $40 range because the supply is a little more stable.
There are around 800,000 or so Zcash coins now in circulation. The inflation rate coming down right as the same amount of Zcash are coming out.
Tai Zen: Just a quick investing lesson here. If you see a chart that looks like this, do not invest in it right away. Wait for the dust to settle before you jump in.
This is the only cryptocurrency in history that has dropped over 99% in value several dozen times.
Let’s switch gears now and talk about the price analysis of the Shadow project. Within the Shadow project, there are tokens that are used throughout their network called Shadow Cash.
Leon Fu: It’s still a smart project, but it’s rapidly gaining size. I don’t think that is not true as of today. It was a big run-up. Now, it was around for less than $30 million. It was there for the last several months.
As we said it uses ring signature a technology similar to Monero, but they’ve decided to build it on a Bitcoin base.
The roadmap is quite a bit different from the other 3 major privacy projects. You have 2 of them that are feature-based. They’re really focused on becoming a currency. Then, you have 1 of them, Dash, that is no longer really focused on privacy anymore, but more user adoption in marketing and business.
Shadow Cash is trying to become a platform that you have privacy services that are built into it. It seems like they’re going for mainstream adoption, perhaps to start off with technical people using it. That’s what I think is going to happen at first.
They have different features such as ShadowSend, which is very similar to Dash private send or shielded transactions of Zcash.
Most of these privacy coins have 2 modes. They have 1 mode that it just works like Bitcoin. Another mode is to use its technology to send money privately.
I would call them apps within the system such as ShadowChat, which is an encrypted decentralized messaging because we don’t want the CIA or the NSA spying on us. It is not only encrypted messaging, which is widely available now but also decentralized encrypted messaging, which means there’s not a central server and it’s more peer to peer message.
Of course, the big one is they’re going to try to create marketplace called ShadowMarket form my understanding. It looks like an eBay with a focus on protecting your privacy.
Tai Zen: Let’s take a look at the technical analysis of Shadow Cash and do a price projection on that to see what are our target prices are.
If you look at here draw a trend line at the bottom of the lows through here. I also did a parallel of that and it touched down here. It served as resistance over here and resistance over here.
This happened so fast that I did not take this into account for this particular analysis. If we draw out these trend lines, we can do a price projection out here. This is much easier to do because it’s just the chart formations. I was able to do a quick analysis of it.
In the short term price target, I can see it running up to 400,000 Satoshi from where it’s currently at 209,000 Satoshi right now because that’s where it’ll bump up against the upper trend line of the upper trend channel right there. The yellow areas where I projected will be hit too.
There’s a possibility that it can poke right through the trendline as it did appear, so I accounted for that by measuring the height of that and adding it to the top of it. That’s why I have the yellow bubble coming up above that.
I can see that happening and projecting that there’s a potential for it to happen within this year and possibly going into next year.
The long term price target of this right is, based on the current market conditions and based on if a Bitcoin stays at the same price or similar to that, going up to 500,000 after 2019 or sometimes above that.
Now we’ve had privacy coins in the past where they don’t update their software after a year or two. If that’s the case, none of this will be relevant.
We’ve also had some privacy coin projects where they’ve rebranded themselves and remarketed themselves and take a different angle. If that’s the case, then all this might change. It might go up even higher than that.
Now I want to take a look at the potential technical price target of Shadow Cash in here. I did the exact same thing. I drew a trendline down the lows that it created. I copied it and did a parallel channel on the other side.
As you can see, the parallel channel hits the bottom of the lows from over here, the highest from way back here in 2015, and also cuts across here. I selected that point because it happens to hit it right on the dot.
Based on the current projection here, the angle in which the price is going up seems to be fairly consistent. This is so flat that it was hard to tell. Even if we use this up angle back here, we can still project that it’s going to come out to about right here to the 400,000 Satoshi in the short term. I can see that happening in 2017 to early 2018.
For a longterm projection on this arithmetic chart, I’m ignoring this one here that looks like it was a glitch at the exchange or something.
If we look it from here to here where it comes, even if it shoots up here and it comes back down, there’s going to be another distance to come up. I’m projecting out that it should hit about 500,000 Satoshi in 2019 or after that.
Now keep in mind that I’m doing these potential price targets based on the current price of Bitcoin is around $1,200 and based on the fact that they’re very slow.
If they don’t update their software like some of the other minor privacy coins did, they can actually go downhill and lose value completely. Or if they rebrand themselves so that more people can see who they are, I can see it might go up even higher.
Let’s take a look at the potential technical price targets for it from a logarithmic chart. Once again, I did the exact same thing. I drew a trend line down the lows of where the price came down to.
I ignored some of these spikes simply because I’m looking for where the majority of the touches occur in the context occur, so it goes up to here.
I did a copy of it and moved it up to here. It hits through here, right up there. This time I used the top of the wicks instead.
If we project this out in the short term, I’ll see 500,000 Satoshi in 2017, 2018 where it hits the upper trend lines right here.
If we go into the longterm price targets, I can see a 2,000,000 round 2019 and above. It may go sideways this way, comes up and probably pull back down before it comes back up to 2,000,000 again.
As I said, if Bitcoin shoots up to five, $10,000 per Bitcoin, all this can completely change. If Shadow Cash decides to take a different approach and change what their trajectory is doing, this completely changes as well.
This is not one of the major privacy coins like Monero, Zcash or Dash, but it’s not a minor privacy coin either. It’s kind of in-between. That’s the reason why we’re giving it a short coverage right here.
Let’s talk about the importance of the community.
Leon Fu: Since we are in the tech business here, a lot of time is spent discussing is this technology better than that technology. That’s important. I won’t say that that doesn’t matter. That’s definitely something valid.
However, we are an investing channel, so technology is only important to the point that it has to work, but it’s not the most important factor for investment success.
For examples, Microsoft Windows didn’t become the dominant operating system for computers because it was the best, but it has gotten adoption. That’s why everyone uses Windows today.
Bitcoin tech is over 8 years old and it continues to be the leading cryptocurrencies. I would argue that many other projects have much better technology than Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is still undisputed with 80% or more of the market value.
I believe we focus too much on technology and not enough on something that’s even more important, which is the community, the people that support the projects.
The size of the community is where the value is, not the technology. The technology could be a reason, but ultimately it has to come down to the community
Tai Zen: Technology or the ideology behind the philosophy and the mission of that cryptocurrency or that privacy coin can unite people together, but it’s the community efforts is what’s going to make it succeed.
Leon Fu: The community is what gives us the investment returns. Therefore, it’s very important for us investors to focus on how the community is developing
I would like to be a little more specific is what I mean by community. Community is the users, the people actually using the currency for whatever they need; the developers, the set of people who are actually pushing the project forward and creating this technology; the miners, the people who are securing the network; the investors, the people who are funding all of these other people. All of that is important.
Tai Zen: Also the journalists, reports, and analysts like us.
Leon Fu: Don’t get me wrong when I say technology is not important. It’s not the most important, but it’s still very important.
Remember cryptocurrency is just software and it can survive as long as it has a strong community behind it, even if there are technical flaws and there will be technical flaws.
Tai Zen: like Ethereum community with DAO attack
Leon Fu: Every project will have technical flaws even Bitcoin
Once again, we’re about life-changing profits here. Life-changing profits will never be achieved on technical strengths alone.
I didn’t come up with that. Our friend Charles Hodgkinson, co-founder of ethereum and now the CEO of IOHK, sent this to me in a phone conversation. He says: “All the value of a coin comes from its community, not the technology”.
Tai Zen: That’s coming from one of the former co-founders of Ethereum, which is the second biggest blockchain cryptocurrency on the market right now even though he hasn’t been involved in a couple of years. He just recently came back to it for the Ethereum classic.
The fact that he says that the community is what makes it succeed is a key consideration to a ponder and consider when you’re looking at investing in any cryptocurrency project.
To quickly summarize some of the leading privacy coins here, we did an analysis of each of the major privacy coins, including Dash, Monero, Zcash and potentially upcoming like Shadow Cash. Then, we talked about the analysis of the drawbacks of each of the major privacy coins.
We did not cover the technical or the fundamental analysis of the minor privacy coins because there’s just not enough volume that’s being traded every day for an investor to safely get into it.
Then, we did the technical analysis and potential price targets for each coin. After that, we talked about the importance of a solid community.
In the next video, we’re going to talk about what does a privacy coin project needed in order to succeed. This is extremely important.
Based on the research that LeonFu.com and I did, we found out that there are certain key characteristics that make cryptocurrency projects succeed mainly from an investment perspective.
That will conclude this episode. I want to say thanks for following us and watching this video. We really enjoy making it.
If you have friends, family or relatives or coworkers or colleagues that are interested in making life-changing profits by investing in the cryptocurrency market, make sure that you share this video and our channel with them.
We look forward to seeing you in a future video.