How to Analyze the Trend of Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, & The Euro?
This is Tai Zen – currency analyst for PrisonOrFreedom.com. It’s a blog where we talk about different things – strategies, techniques, tools, investments and technology that can help bring freedom to people’s lives in their health, wealth and relationships.
In this episode of currency analysis number two. I want to talk about how to analyze the trend of Bitcoin, gold, silver and the Euro and let me try to squeeze it in. So let me go ahead and get started!
I like to use the tradingview.com website because it provides the tools and an easy user interface. In the last episode, I was saying that if you want to take a conservative long right here, you can get long right here near this trend line and then if it breaks below the low of this, this or this, you can get out right. It did go up a little bit and then it pulled back down. So you guys can see what I’m talking about, just because you put your stop at this blue line here does not mean that you have to wait until the price gets there.
If you see the price goes in your favour and then it starts to roll over and then it makes a second attempt right here in this green candle, in these two candles, it made an attempt to go back up but it didn’t, there was weakness because the selling pressure came in and it pushed the price down.
And as you see, the body of each candle get longer and longer that’s like a very very good sign that the price momentum is coming in towards the downside so you could have easily gotten out for a break even on this trade or get out when it broke the low of this or anywhere here. You don’t necessarily have to wait for this long candle to get down to here and then take your stop-loss.
Remember you’re always welcome to move your stop-loss to be smaller. So let’s back up to one day that China prohibited the third party payment processors from allowing Chinese citizens or Chinese people to deposit their Chinese money or the yuan or the RMB into an exchange, the largest exchange in the world, which is BTC China right now is scared, spooked everybody and we have a lot of nervous novice traders in the market right here.
Although it may look like it’s a bad thing, I actually considered it to be a good thing because now while Bitcoin is still young and its still only sub $1000 in price or close to it. The reason why I invite the government and the computer hackers and people around the world to do that is that will allow Bitcoin and its core developers in the Bitcoin community and Bitcoin as a protocol to be able to weather the storm and deal with it as if it was a virus.
These government regulations, these computer hackers, everybody that tries to hurt the Bitcoin protocol and the public ledger and the blockchain. So what happens is every time Bitcoin takes a hit and weathers the storm, it takes the brunt of the impact and then it recovers from it. And what happens is it develops its immunity and then in the future when it happens again, Bitcoin sails right through it.
So right now while Bitcoin is young, I strongly believe that it needs these government bans and regulations and different things to try to destroy it, because ultimately after it survives these hurdles and obstacles, it will come out shining. So after all this nonsense is done when Bitcoin rises here, it will punch right through 1240 easily.
Back to this trend line analysis here, when we see something like this, the ideal thing is to grab two parallel lines and draw a trend line down here. So that gives us a quick idea right away where it’s at now. Everybody draws their trend line differently. My policy has been to always draw it from significant points and the most significant hits.
So in other words, I draw it from the corner of this red candle to the corner of this red candle and to the wick simply because there’s where the most significant hits. If you need to squeeze it in like this to where it hits this, this, end this, that’s fine, there’s no law that says that’s wrong, just whichever one you do, try to keep it consistent.
So I’m going to touch this, the corner of that red and some of this. I prefer the majority hits rule. These are all just guidelines I’m trying to let you know where we’re at.
With Bitcoin, there are only three things that price can do, either go up and go down or go sideways. I’m not gonna update this trendline simply because the price was here the last time we talked about the Chinese announcement that they’re banning the third-party payment processors and then it bounces right back up to where it was at originally when we did the first episode of currency analysis.
So when it bounces back that fast and that quick, that lets me know that this is not a significant move. But we need to have some guidelines, some road markers or some street signs to let us know the potential direction of Bitcoin. When that happens we need to update it so I’m going to move this down here to the next levels available, the bottom of this tail, his candle and the bottom of these two bodies
Notice how it hits the bottom of that body here the bottom of here and then the top of that wick. I’m always looking for where price launches so price launched, it was going sideways and it launched out of that sideways up to here, went sideways a little bit, launched up to here there’s some profit taking right there and then when price fell back down it stopped right there, and then when price fell down here it stopped right there.
Now the reason why we don’t use this anymore is simply that this red candle is no longer significant. Because all the buyers and sellers that were waiting to get in or out, they got hammered. I mean price hasn’t come down far enough to hit these and all these other areas.
If it continues to go up, I would have to wait for it to be above the high of this wick right here to take it too long, and then immediately put your stop right below whatever this red candle is and it goes below that you definitely want to get out, and then obviously the profit targets would still be the same and be up to here or to here, first profit target here, second profit target there.
if price decides to roll back down, I would look at price may be going sideways up to somewhere near here maybe for another day another candle before it starts to fall and if it falls either from here or in the next couple of days over the weekend, if it falls below this, we have a high probability of coming all the way down to this area right here, to the low or right below 300. And that would equate to the 80% pullback that the last two major pull backs had in Bitcoin.
So that’s the analysis of Bitcoin. Let me go over here to some other currencies that I believe to be important here – the Euro. We’re going to pull out to the daily chart and it’s been going kind of like a slightly downward sideways motion. We are going to draw a channel on this, notice how I go from here to here to here, now that channel was very easy to draw.
However, we see a different picture. Let’s take a closer look at how it got to here and it came back down here. We see that price has actually been going sideways between here, so that gives you a ten-degree angle right there. But I’m going to go ahead and stay with this simple and ignore that top part right there because this is more significant right there.
And then I’m going to put these two right there. So where it hits that area that area and this right here and that would be like my big picture long-term view of the Euro and then if we draw another channel from the bottom of this one to right here and we move it up to here, we can see that it’s either there or it hits this point, this point and this point or we can move it up to right here to where it hits this point.
Now ideally what we want to do is we want to see where it hits the most points. Notice how it hits here, the price came up here it pulled back right there and then it tried to break down below that again, it did.
But what I’m going to do is to put my stop. My target is to go back– I’m going to draw a little smaller trend line right there, like a little short-term, intermediate-term trend line. So I’m looking to come down to here and see if it’ll break through and come to here.
Now if you sit through this, expect some pullbacks, because notice how when the price comes down, notice how it bounces back and forth. It vibrates back and forth, so you can expect that. Even though Ben Bernanke, when he spoke here and the price fell. I’m almost convinced that he has let his buddies know that he’s about to open his mouth and say something so to go ahead and short right up here.
I mean every time the Ben Bernanke opens his mouth, the price moves massively. It happens so consistently that I am convinced that there is some insider trading to where he lets everybody in, his buddies or somebody at the banks, the big banks and stuff like that know that he’s about to open his mouth and to get ready to shot.
Now that’s just my personal opinion. I don’t have any evidence for that other than the fact that price moves massively every time he has his announcements. That right there, if you miss this move– notice how there are several opportunities where you can jump in on this
Let me go ahead and get that straightened back out. If you’ notice that inside here there is a trend in here. You can make an attempt to go long when it hits somewhere around here, right there if you’re an aggressive trader, if not, I would wait until it hits comes down to here near is the 1.32 area before I take it long.
If you miss this short right here, there’s nothing wrong with that, just wait, you can take an aggressive short-term trade near here or be more conservative waiting till it hits this bigger trend line. It’s up to you, it’s up to your experience level and it’s up to the amount of risk that you’re willing to tolerate. So that’s the trend that I see on the long term and short term and intermediate term trends in the Euro and the opportunities that’s available.
Let’s come over here and jump over to gold and silver really quick.
With silver, even though I think it’s worthless, I invest in physical silver simply because I use it to commemorate certain events in my life. I had a son that was born in the year of the dragon.
So I’d like to get some Dragon coins to commemorate his birth. And then I also had a daughter born this year in the year of the snake. So I like to get some silver coins just to commemorate their birth. I do not believe in gold and silver as a currency or as money. I buy them for commemorative reasons only just because I like the designs on there.
I’ve short the paper silver since it was somewhere around here I drew a trend line. I just drew a very very short term trend line that would look like somewhere like that and I shorted it when it got somewhere right here. I think it was on one of these candles.
So if you miss the move on silver, the next ideal place would be somewhere along this trend line to short it and then what I would do is just to be safe I would not look to short it anytime here because we’re near this support area from way back here.
If you’ll notice in the back here, you see this area of consolidation here, in this area of consolidation before price broke through. In other words, the price of silver when it came up to here, they try to test this 16-$18 level and it failed and it fell back down.
And if it took dozens of more times here to finally penetrate it and bust through in a shot up ever since with all that silver manipulation that was in the market. Now I don’t care about this manipulation, I really don’t care if the market makers I’m moving–. I really care about none of that, all I care about is that I manage my risk and I manage my positions and I look at what the high probability is.
I just can sit here and talk about the conspiracy theories of what the Federal Reserve and what the banks and what everything is doing and there’s nothing I can do about that because I’m just a little peon, I’m just like a flea out in a multi-billion trillion-dollar market. There is nothing I do or say that’s going to affect the market.
What I can do though is that I can manage how much I lose, I cannot manage how much I gain but I can definitely manage how much I lose. So when price hits here, if you miss the short on silver, paper silver, even if you are holding physical silver, I still recommend that if there’s an opportunity to short the hell out of paper silver, you do it because then that makes up for the loss that you’re gaining on your physical silver.
So the next best place to do it is to wait until it bounces off the support area, it’s going to come in here and there’s going to be a bounce up and when it hits somewhere along here, then that’s where you want to take it short, now if it bounces here and breaks right through this, don’t panic.
Wait until it comes up to this trend line and then you can either short again, or when it comes down and then take it short and load up the boat then. Now I’ve been waiting for silver to fall so that I can get the physical silver to commemorate my kids birth and a few other events. I just can wait until silver prices drop even more.
Silver, gold, things like this are readily available at any second, any minute, any given time so when something is that readily available in the market, I am not convinced that it is rare and precious. I’m going over to way down here, I mean in our way past 1412 and everything.
Of course, there’s going to be some bumps along the way like right here at 1450. There’s going to be some more bumps in the 12 to mid-$12 range. But ultimately I’m looking for it to come back down here to below $10, to around the $10 range. That’s my long-term outlook and the trend analysis of silver. Let’s take a look at gold really quick.
Let’s see what gold looks like here now despite what everybody says that gold is more valuable than Bitcoin now, I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed. And I mean if you guys know me, I never claimed to be smart. You know that I know a bunch of people, almost the majority of my friends are smarter than me. So, for me to say that I’m smart is not really being honest with myself, but here’s what I see.
See this trend line, this high point is not going to be really that significant anymore. So I’m going to come over here and use the more current high points, which is more like this. Remember when I draw the trend lines I just draw it based on majority hits. So if you’re wondering why I’m not drawing an accurate, that’s just my style of drawing trend lines, it is not the end-all-be-all.
The trend line coming up here hitting against this former trend line, it finally breaks through, hits this one and then it’s just bouncing back and forth to here and if you look closely– we can even do this; we can even do a parallel, a clone and watch what happens here.
Watch when I pull this here, notice how the price of gold has been hugging this small channel back and forth. Now that sideways channel has opened up a little bit– Just want to show you the overall trend.
Now if the price of gold breaks this right here, 1180 or so, it’s somewhere around there. If gold break this low right here, it’s all over. There’s going to be a small speed bump right there, but not that significant. Because we are on an overall long-term downtrend.
So when the price comes down to here, my projected target is going to be down to here and if it breaks below this level right here, I would even say that it’s actually this zone right here, this support zone. I’m looking at gold to come down to here to below to right around $1,000 before it pulls back up. Once it breaks, move, of course, is going to pull back a few times, but that’s what my projection is for gold. So let me make sure that we covered everything here.
We analyse the trend of Bitcoin, gold, silver and the Euro. Let me go ahead and do the trend line analysis of Litecoin. Remember that I draw my trend lines where I see the majority of the action taking place. Right there, we can either put it right there. It’s just a matter of personal opinion. There’s a bunch of hits right here.
Let me just put a support and resistance line right there. That is a significant level. Price of here fell and broke through. It came back down, bounced right there. Tested more times, that’s the next closest one. If we draw a little parallel channel from here, just a small one.
We can see that there is a potential for price to come here. Somewhere right here. I would say that there’s a very good potential for Litecoin to come down to the bottom of this right here to this area before it bounces back up either to go up or to go down some more long term. And if it falls through this there’s a good chance that will come down to here.
So what I would do is I would look to start accumulating some Litecoin. Remember these are all long-term position trades here. We’re not trying to scout the markets when I do not know that nonsense because we don’t have an advantage in the short term.
Why? Because it’s very volatile the– this is only a week, need to go with the days and then we need to go with all. So hopefully– well maybe that’s all the data we got. So I don’t know where else to get Litecoin charts. This is the only place I know that I can do analysis on so I’m going to stick with it.
I’m going to look at these different levels here – 4 places to get into Litecoin right there. So I’ll start getting some Litecoins when it’s in this area and possibly in this area right here.
Thanks for watching this currency analysis from Bitcoin, gold, silver, the Euro to the bonus on Litecoin today. If you find this useful I invite you to subscribe to our YouTube channel and subscribe to our mail list on PrisonOrFreedom.com.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below and what I can do to help you guys with your analysis and I’ll see you in the next episode. I’ll share some more information with you guys on the things that myself and my colleagues and my friends use to allow us to obtain more freedom in our lives.