Auger For Investors #1 – What Is Auger (REP)? (Cryptocurrency)


Leon: There’s going to be dozens of these projects going on and there’s two that I’ve pointed out today on my Facebook page. One is called Augur,, or .io I don’t remember. But that is a betting site or a prediction market. Do you know how those work Tai and are you familiar with prediction markets?

Tai: No, I mean I saw their videos, but I’m not clear on how they’re able to use the wisdom of the crowds…


So, a prediction market is something like if you want to know if Donald Trump is going to be president or not.

Okay, so you can create a contract, typically the way a prediction market works is you can pose a question “Is Donald Trump going to be President?” andIs it going to rain tomorrow?” “Is the S&P is going to close higher than…”, whatever it is and then people can then place bets on what the outcome of the event is going to be.

So they want to do this in a completely decentralized way. So you could pose a question like “Is Donald Trump going to win right now?” Well, if he wins, the contract is worth 10 Ethers. If he loses, it’s worth nothing. Well, it’s a market. People are willing to buy and sell it. It’s going to trade somewhere between 0 and 10.

Ten when he wins, and zero if he loses. But between now and until he wins or loses at the election, it’s just going to trade. So it implies what the probability of Trump becoming president is at any given moment.

That’s going to be huge. We already have this today, but it’s centralized. And what’s the problem with being centralized? For one, you can’t run this site in America because it’s illegal to gamble on elections.

I mean it’s actually illegal to do that here. So all of these sites are offshore because it can’t be based here, so you have the government that might shut you down. You also have the problem of like the Problem of the Oracle. How do you trust that the person that declares whether it even happened or not, how do you know he’s telling the truth?

Tai: Yeah. So basically, Augur, they call it predictive forecasting but it’s a gambling site. Or the prediction market that is just being used as a gambling site.

Leon: Well, that is one purpose of it, is just speculate on events. That you can say who’s going to win the World Series or the Superbowl. That’s the first thing that comes to mind, but you can ask like all sorts of questions about the present, or about the future.

It’s oftentimes based on academic studies with a crowd making bet on outcomes of events, it actually can reveal information that no any one individual knows. Maybe, a bunch of people betting on whether Donald Trump wins or loses is going to be President, is more accurate than polling if you go ask a hundred people who they’re going to vote for.

Do you get what I’m saying? Like I don’t even care about the polls. I mean if you really want to know if Donald Trump’s going to be president or who’s going to be the president, you should look at the betting markets.

Tai: Yeah. You should look at who’s putting money on the line, and not just people who think it is.

Leon: Yeah. Rather than just asking a bunch of people who are you going to vote for, you get a better idea of what the position of how likely it is each candidate going to win by looking at the people who are actually putting money on it.

So that’s an application of it. One aspect of it is gambling. No question about that, but it’s actually a site that can… You’d be surprised, you could ask questions like “When is the next terrorist attack going to happen?”, or “where’s the next terrorist…?”. And then you could say is it going to be here, is it going to be there, then, it would be all these contracts that trade.

Tai: Yeah. So here’s my question Leon. So I understand what the prediction market is now. David says it’s so similar to an options market except it’s more broadly used.

Leon: Yes. It’s not just on stocks, it’s going to be an open platform where anyone can pose a question.

Tai: Yeah. It’s decentralized, so there’s no place to shut it down.

Leon: Exactly.

Tai: Here’s my question though. So those are the fundamentals of it, right. Let’s look technical. There’s a little bit the technical side.

Leon: Although there are no technical, it hasn’t opened yet.

Tai: Yeah. So we’re still focusing on the fundamentals. How do we get some of these Augurs?

Leon: So we can’t, the answer is we missed it.

Tai: Yeah.

Leon: We missed the crowd sale which finished in October. And it’s too bad. We didn’t pay attention last year when Ethereum just went to the back burner because it seemed like they were just miles away on the platform, but actually if we had gone to DEFCON 1 that happened in London. That actually was something a big event we should have gone to in hindsight.

Tai: Yeah. You need to step up your game because you’re the fundamental expert. I did my half of the fundamentals; you’re not doing your half.

Leon: But remember. I’m pointing out Augurs because they did a great job marketing. The campaign they raised 5 million dollars in the pre-sale.

And we really should have gotten into, but it’s ok we can get in on it…so if you looked at Factor, and Ethereum, and all these other things that have held crowd sale when they launched.

It’s ok, like Ethereum, we bought it at 30 cents in the IPO, we still could have bought it at $1 or under $1 for most of last year. I mean this…move even if you had missed the IPO, you had plenty of time to buy Ethers. You didn’t you missed out on, you didn’t make 40 times your money as we did. But you still made 12.

Tai: Yeah. It’s not bad. Yeah, it’s not bad.

Leon: So we missed it, we’re not going to get 20 30 40 times our money, when it hits the market, I still think it’s a 10x move.

Tai: Yeah, I believe that too. So we just got to be ready for it.

Leon: And we may not buy it at the open because it might spike up crazy. You remember when Ethers when they first started trading, it was at 4 bucks back in August. Remember we were talking it was over the summer?

Tai: Yeah. Because there’s always going to be people that are going to want to cash out.

Leon: Yeah, there are people that want to cash out, and it was really hard to buy, and we didn’t buy because we were both scared that would screw something up. And we just said it’s 4 bucks and it went straight back down. That was a huge trade if you sold that open.

You could’ve sold at 4 bucks and then buy back under 1. So anyway, even if you had missed it, you had all summer to buy Ethereum. And I believe Augur… It wasn’t that high-profile, if it really was, we would have heard about it, we followed this thing…

Tai: I got into Factor just a week ago, and I already made a hundred per cent on it.

Leon: Yeah. We all made a lot of money.

Tai: David is over here rolling his eyes, and he was like “You bastard.”

Leon:  We made a hundred per cent after it had already gone up a thousand per cent.

Tai: Yeah. I showed that to him.

Leon: Yeah. It already went up ten times, and we bought it, and we still made two times. Because I think here’s where the fundamentals matter because if you just look at the technical, you’re going to tell yourself “No way”.

I mean why would you buy anything that moves up ten times. It was at 10 cents for most of the summer, now it’s at a dollar. If you don’t know anything about the fundamentals, you’re not going to buy that.

But I mean why did I buy that because like I was at the Meetup, and I talked to those guys, and I’m looking at the valuation. I’m looking at the fundamentals and I’m looking at a nine-million-dollar market cap, and they’re telling me things, and I’m like this is not 9 million. This is worth 50 to 100 million.

And it would have been nice to buy in like at a 1-million-dollar valuation, but even at a 9-million or 8, the thing’s worth 50. You missed it at 1. You’re buying it at 8. You’re paying 10 times more, but it’s worth 50.

So that’s why I said we got to buy it. So Augur is just something we need to keep on the radar. We have to follow that. That’s something that I mean we’ve just got to put in our news feed or something. They’re going to launch sometime this year and we’re going to have to watch the open. That is something I think is going to be really big.


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